Saturday, December 4, 2021

Five Reasons Both Parties Risk Abortion Policy Overreach

Last week's oral arguments before the United States Supreme Court in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health have caused many court-watchers to speculate about the potential demise of Roe v. Wade. This would fulfill a long-time conservative Culture War objective while also setting the stage for a nasty battle between the nation's two political parties over the issue leading up to the 2022 Midterm Elections.

Considering the public pronouncements of the parties and some of their top officials in recent days, it would come as no surprise to see both parties overreach on policy grounds in the coming months. Perhaps unsurprisingly, I predict that Republican pols will likely embrace unpopular, overly restrictive policies with Democratic pols backing likely unpopular, overly permissive policies. Meanwhile, most voters fall somewhere between the two positions.

1—The vast majority of voters want to keep Roe in place, 65% to 28% (Fox, Sept. 2021). This includes 77% of Democrats, 64% of Independents, and 53% of Republicans. 

2—A plurality of 26% want to keep Roe as is, but add restrictions, with most voters--including those who back restrictions--still calling themselves "pro-choice" (NPR/PBS/Marist, June 2019).

3—Opinion varies and voters fall into three categories according to the FiveThirtyEight polling aggregates: 10-15% say it should always be illegal, 25-30% say it should always be legal, and 55-60% say abortion should be legal in some cases, but not in all cases.

4—Abortion is currently is a low-priority voting issue: just 1% said it is the most important problem facing the country in one poll (Gallup, Oct. 2021) with 4% telling pollsters it was their top issue in another (YouGov/The Economist, Oct. 2021).

 5—Voters see considerable nuance when it comes to abortion policy. 61% believe abortion should be legal during the first trimester, 34% in the second trimester and, 19% in the third trimester. 87% want to preserve legal abortions if the women’s health is in danger, 84% in cases of incest or rape, and 74% if the child is likely to be born with serious life-threatening illnesses (AP/NORC,June 2021 with similar findings by Gallup, June 2018). 

These numbers should provide a warning for the two parties following last week's oral arguments and the ongoing efforts by Mississippi politicians to force the court's hand. While the American voters have not yet decided that abortion policy constitutes a core "voting issue" that drives their decision-making at the polls, the public does not embrace an all-or-nothing mindset. Republicans who are likely to go "all in" on running against all legal abortion and the overturn of Roe as well as the Democrats who seem willing to back abortion without restrictions could likely rouse the electorate's ire next November. 

Saturday, September 25, 2021

Restore Public Trust in SCOTUS with Retention Elections

During the Spring 2021 semester I taught a new course I created called Controversies in American Politics. The class was designed to allow students to read about and discuss issues pertaining to the design and structure of American politics and political institutions from a historical and developmental perspective.

We generally avoided most policy issues because those are debated ad nauseum without us adding another layer to whether or not we need more or less gun control. Instead, the class analyzed things such as the constitutional design of the Electoral College, the powers of the presidency, the structure of Congress, the development of the two-party system, and the staffing of the federal bureaucracy. We even had a cool research paper written on whether all states would be better off applying the Napoleonic Code as is the custom in Louisiana!

Ever since that class concluded in May 2021, I have been thinking about a design-driven, middle ground solution to address the question of growing politicization and perceived bias related to the U.S. Supreme Court. We don’t need reams of data to tell us what every observer of American politics has understood for quite some time: the politicization of the United States federal courts, particularly the United States Supreme Court is especially problematic and poses a genuinely vexing problem for our country moving forward.

The Quinnipiac University polling data below from www.pollingreport.com only goes back to early 2003, but the share of American voters who say they disapprove of the way SCOTUS is handling its job has risen over the past 18 years. In early 2003 the court held a positive net rating of +29 (those who approve minus those who disapprove) while as of this month it sits at a negative net rating of -12. The court’s overall approval rating has waxed and waned over this time period, but their net rating remained consistently positive until June 2008, recovered briefly, but has been inching downward in 2012, 2013, and 2021 despite a brief uptick in 2020.

Likewise, from 2010 onward the share of voters saying SCOTUS is too liberal has declined while those reporting that it is too conservative has increased significantly with fewer saying the court’s ideological positioning is “about right.”


My purpose here is not to catalog the already exhaustive list of political and policy reasons why the courts are becoming (and are perceived to be) more political, but to instead introduce a suggestion for how to modernize SCOTUS without the drastic steps that have been discussed recently among some politicians such as imposing term limits or having the president pack the court to achieve ideological parity. Perhaps a less extreme approach is in order.

According to the University of Denver’s Institute for the Advancement of the American Legal System (IAALS), 21 states currently utilize some form of system of judicial retention for sitting judges. The way it works is that a judge is either appointed or elected (depending on the state) to a fixed term. Following their initial appointment or election they must stand before the voters for a retention vote and the public is given the option of either voting “yes” or “no” on retaining said jurist for another fixed term of the same length.

That’s it. There is are no partisan primaries, head-to-head elections to endure, or anything of that nature. The voters decide whether a jurist deserves another term or not. If they agree, they vote yes. If they disagree with keeping them on, they vote no.

IAALS says that one major benefit of this system is that “judges do not face opponents in retention elections, they usually do not need to raise money and conduct campaigns. At the same time, special interest groups are not as active in retention elections as they are in contested elections because a good judge’s performance speaks for itself. Although special interest groups can spend money to oust a judge they do not like, they cannot select a replacement who fits their particular agenda because the judicial nominating commission is tasked with selecting nominees to fill vacancies.”

Realistically, a process by which SCOTUS justices must stand for a retention vote—say at the ten-year mark of their initial confirmation—will most certainly draw the attention and activism of special interest groups. That’s just the nature of the beast and should be expected. However, as a democratic pluralist, I welcome the opportunity for citizen-driven organizations, interest groups representing actual voters, and individual voters themselves to weigh in on whether or not a judge ought to be kept on the job for another term. After all, these are the courts that play a vital role in the lives of all citizens.

While I am not completely convinced this is a system will ever come to pass with regard to Supreme Court justices, I think it deserves some attention, time, and contemplation. As the public’s perceptions of SCOTUS shift in a more negative direction it may be that such an infusion of participatory democracy by the voters could help remedy the situation.

Think about it—Justice Amy Coney Barrett assumed office on October 20, 2020 to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. In my hypothetical plan, she would face a retention vote sometime before her ten-year mark in October 2030. Should she receive 50% plus one vote she is retained for an additional ten-year term on the Supreme Court. Should she receive less she is replaced by a new presidential nominee. The voters decide—based on whatever metric they see fit—whether she should stay or go.

Such a plan allows for public input into the courts, acknowledges the political nature of the courts that some still seem to deny to this day, enables the voters to temper the clubby judicial  politics of Washington, allows for the imposition of a soft “term limit” without forcing judges off the bench in an arbitrary way, and embraces the nation’s participatory political spirit without subjecting United States Supreme Court justices to the rigors of an actual, national head-to-head election campaign. It may also make voters feel somewhat greater confidence in the institution if they are able to have some say in who serves within it.

I doubt this this plan will come to pass, but perhaps it is an idea worth debating.

Wednesday, July 14, 2021

Y'all Politics Features Shrader Op-Ed on Ballot Initiative Reform

My op-ed on the important topic of carefully reforming Mississippi's ballot initiative process ran in Y'all Politics on July 9, 2021. I am hopeful that the Mississippi Legislature will move cautiously in revamping the ballot initiative process to prevent the continuation of "overvoting," which allows voters who oppose amending the state constitution to then dictate the policy option they prefer despite not wanting to move forward at all. You can read the entire piece here: https://yallpolitics.com/2021/07/09/shrader-overvoting-threatens-legitimacy-of-ballot-initiative-process/.


Sunday, June 6, 2021

Shrader Joins Former U.S. Rep. Gregg Harper on WJTV/CBS Show

This morning I had the opportunity to join my friend Byron Brown for this week's episode of MISSISSIPPI INSIGHT on WJTV, Mississippi's CBS affiliate. I enjoyed appearing alongside my former US Congressman, Gregg Harper to tackle some of the big issues we are facing such as the January 6 Commission, COVID-19 vaccinations in Mississippi, voting rights, and more! 

https://www.wjtv.com/video/mississippi-insight-for-june-6-2021/6691806/

Thursday, April 1, 2021

OPENING DAY 2021! Shrader's Official MLB Season Predictions

NL East

NL Central

NL West

Mets

Cubs

Dodgers

Nationals

Brewers

Padres

Braves

Cardinals

Giants

Phillies

Reds

Diamondbacks

Marlins

Bucs

Rockies

Wild Card 1: 

Wild Card 2:

Brewers

Padres

Pennant:

Dodgers over Mets

AL East

AL Central

AL West

Yankees

White Sox

Astros

Red Sox

Twins

Angels

Rays

Royals

A's

Blue Jays

Indians

Rangers

Orioles

Tigers

Mariners

Wild Card 1:

Wild Card 2:

Twins

Red Sox

Pennant:

Yankees over Astros

WORLD SERIES

Dodgers over Yankees




In case anyone has forgotten! 

Sunday, February 28, 2021

SOLIDARITY: Biden Backs Amazon Union in AL

 This is just breaking now, but I wanted to take a moment to say how wonderfully exciting it is that President Biden has formally endorsed the efforts of the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union (RWDSU) to unionize the Amazon workers in Bessemer, Alabama. President Biden's statement may be the most important presidential remarks made on the subject of labor unions in decades. Please take a moment to listen the two minute and twenty second remarks here. I sincerely hope that this is the turning point that leads to victory.



The Red Sox Battle the Evil Empire: Playoffs 2026

 As we prepare for the start of the American League Wild Card series tonight between the forces of good--the Boston Red Sox--and the Evil Em...