Five Reasons Both Parties Risk Abortion Policy Overreach

Last week's oral arguments before the United States Supreme Court in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health have caused many court-watchers to speculate about the potential demise of Roe v. Wade. This would fulfill a long-time conservative Culture War objective while also setting the stage for a nasty battle between the nation's two political parties over the issue leading up to the 2022 Midterm Elections.

Considering the public pronouncements of the parties and some of their top officials in recent days, it would come as no surprise to see both parties overreach on policy grounds in the coming months. Perhaps unsurprisingly, I predict that Republican pols will likely embrace unpopular, overly restrictive policies with Democratic pols backing likely unpopular, overly permissive policies. Meanwhile, most voters fall somewhere between the two positions.

1—The vast majority of voters want to keep Roe in place, 65% to 28% (Fox, Sept. 2021). This includes 77% of Democrats, 64% of Independents, and 53% of Republicans. 

2—A plurality of 26% want to keep Roe as is, but add restrictions, with most voters--including those who back restrictions--still calling themselves "pro-choice" (NPR/PBS/Marist, June 2019).

3—Opinion varies and voters fall into three categories according to the FiveThirtyEight polling aggregates: 10-15% say it should always be illegal, 25-30% say it should always be legal, and 55-60% say abortion should be legal in some cases, but not in all cases.

4—Abortion is currently is a low-priority voting issue: just 1% said it is the most important problem facing the country in one poll (Gallup, Oct. 2021) with 4% telling pollsters it was their top issue in another (YouGov/The Economist, Oct. 2021).

 5—Voters see considerable nuance when it comes to abortion policy. 61% believe abortion should be legal during the first trimester, 34% in the second trimester and, 19% in the third trimester. 87% want to preserve legal abortions if the women’s health is in danger, 84% in cases of incest or rape, and 74% if the child is likely to be born with serious life-threatening illnesses (AP/NORC,June 2021 with similar findings by Gallup, June 2018). 

These numbers should provide a warning for the two parties following last week's oral arguments and the ongoing efforts by Mississippi politicians to force the court's hand. While the American voters have not yet decided that abortion policy constitutes a core "voting issue" that drives their decision-making at the polls, the public does not embrace an all-or-nothing mindset. Republicans who are likely to go "all in" on running against all legal abortion and the overturn of Roe as well as the Democrats who seem willing to back abortion without restrictions could likely rouse the electorate's ire next November.